Fukuyama's Self-Defeating Hegemon

Francis Fukuyama offers four reasons why the Bush administration has floundered: (1) misapplication of the doctrine of pre-emption; (2) miscalculating the global reaction to our moves; (3) overestimating the effectiveness of conventional military power versus weak states; (4) epic managerial incompetence.  FF thinks (a) pre-emption only appropriate for "stateless" terrorists; (b) the U.S. wrongly assumed that the deference its actions received during the Cold War and the 1990s would continue; (c) military power is of limited utility against transnational terror networks; (d) mismanagement sabotaged the chances of success.  He sees the fundamental problem as the "lopsided distribution of power" in the globe today, with America the resented hegemon.

As to mismanagement FF is correct.  Our miscalculation as to world reaction was, on FF's own evidence, reasonable.  And one can also think much of the world reaction unreasonable, too.  As for conventional military power, it was necessary to dislodge Saddam, and would also be needed to dislodge the Iranian mullahs.  As for pre-emption, it was a calculated risk that went clearly awry, but it is an arrow we may well need in our quiver to deal with Iran.  Finally, as for America's enormous power and influence being resented, it all comes back to what a young Wilt Chamberlain told a reporter when asked why he was so hated: "Nobody loves Goliath."