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March 21, 2008

Hillary's "Best (Wo)Man" Scenario

Suppose Obama stays within 10 or 15 points in Pennsylvania, and thus still appears viable.  Here is another potential scenario for the Democrats.

The 1964 movie version of Gore Vidal's best-selling novel, "The Best Man," made for a solid political thriller.  A liberal Democrat (modeled on Adlai Stevenson, played by Henry Fonda) and a conservative Democrat (modeled on Richard Nixon, played by Cliff Robertson--who also, ironically, played JFK in "PT 109," the film biopic of Kennedy) vie for the Democratic presidential nomination.  Each has a skeleton in his past: the liberal was treated for mental illness (which sank the 1972 V-P nomination of Democratic Senator Thomas Eagleton, as George McGovern's first running mate selection); the conservative has a "wide stance" men's room encounter and arrest.  The picture ends with the two deadlocked at the convention, neither able to garner a majority.  So the liberal throws his delegates to the third contender, an unknown.

Now, assume: (1) Hillary is sitting on a "smoking gun" tape of Barack & Michelle , caught vigorously applauding one of Reverend Wright's "hate white America" tirades; (2) Hillary winds up after all the primaries with more popular votes than Obama, but fewer delegates, with both margins close; (3) no one else has fatally incriminating tapes.

Hillary now approaches key super delegates, or even Obama's camp, and gives them a choice: Anoint her for the top spot on the ticket, with Obama as Veep, or tapes will leak, thus destroying (a) the Party's chances of victory in November and (b) Obama's political career.  Hillary agrees that if her ticket loses she will never again run for the Oval office (an easy concession, as she will never be as strong a candidate as she is now).  Obama, at 46, could run again in 2012, or bide his time, his career protected by the tapes being kept secure.

Far-fetched?  Perhaps.  Perhaps not.  Hillary is the third of her generation's three most ambitious politicians.  Al Gore created an election train wreck ISO the presidency--preferring to win even a diminished presidency than lose gracefully, a blow from which the country has yet to recover.  Presidential aspirant Eliot Spitzer prosecuted his way to glory, over the dead bodies of innocent as well as guilty.  Hillary--not her husband--is the third of this unholy trio.  Winning the presidency is to her, everything.  Barack may yet wind up paying dearly for his pastor not having learned the "Lesson of Watergate": Burn the tapes, stupid!

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