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April 11, 2008

Democratic Tribalism

Michael Baron looks at Obama - Hill and sees deep tribal divisions.  He presents numbers among various voter groups that show a sharper polarization within Democratic ranks than in any election he can remember.  Whites are 53-39 for Hill, blacks 80-17 for Obama, Latinos 58-39 Hill, Asians 71-25 Hill.  Academics huge for Obama, and public employees union members too--thus Obama carried most state capitols.  Youth for Barack, elderly for Hill.  Upscale voters for Obama, poorer ones for Hill, reflecting her appeal to what Barone terms Jacksonian voters: fighters who admire a fighter, and despise anyone who attacks their family or country (as Obama's former--and present--pastor did).  These divisions could lead many of the losing candidate's group to stay home, or, for Jacksonians, to vote for Big Mac.

NRO's Jonah Goldberg doubts the tribal war will cause many Democrats neuralgic about GOP foreign policy to stay home, but sees Hill's attacks on Obama inoculating Big Mac from charges of racism or vast right-wing conspiracies, as Big Mac need go no further in criticizing Obama than Hill has already gone.

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