After Indiana & North Carolina: A Path for Hill?

Begin with the latest numbers from IN (72 delegates) & NC (115 delegates).  Hill narrowly won (51-49) IN; Barack solidly (56-42) took NC.  Hill needs 68 percent of uncommitted supers, Barack only 37 percent.  Had Hill upset Barack in NC and won bigger in IN, the complexion of the race would have changed in her favor.  Drilling into the data, though, keep in mind that 1/3 of NC voters are black, versus 1/7 of IN voters.  The 1/7 fraction blacks represent in IN nearly mirrors their share of the population.  Obama takes about 90 percent of the black vote, so that is 30-3 in NC, meaning that Hill led 36-26 among the rest.  In IN Obama's edge would be about 13-1 among blacks, making the tally 51 - 29 for Hill among the rest.  Thus, Hill does at least 3-2 over Obama, among whites.  And she runs better among Hispanics.

Looking ahead, politics maven Jay Cost charts a nomination path, albeit a long shot, for Hillary.  Her strength with downscale white voters Obama may well lose to Big Mac, coupled with a campaign-shifting 30 to 40 point blowout in west Virginia, plus caucus-free arithmetic.  Cost notes that Obama's 154-delegate lead before last night would have been 15 if the 139 caucus delegates Obama carried were excluded.  She could, conceivably, win the delegate count if the caucus results are excluded--even without either Michigan or Florida.  And with Florida she can win the popular vote, too.  Moreover, the caucus states, with two exceptions, are either solidly Democratic or GOP, so that only in two swing states that held caucus, Colorado and New Mexico, might Obama be able to argue that he could win them in November while Hill might not.  She counters by pointing out that she won all big states save Illinois which she can win in November, but that Obama will lose Florida and might lose Pennsylvania to McCain.  All this is of course iffy, but it could happen.

But Obama has a secret weapon, too: potential black voter rage if the final result is seen as shoving aside the first viable black candidate for president.  And they may not settle for Veep.  Dems might find themselves with a less viable candidate in Obama, but better to lose in 2008 than lose black support for 20 years.  The identity politics train-wreck express rolls on.