Race 2008: Drilling Down into the Numbers

Herewith a deeper assessment of the role racial voting may well play cone November.  Begin with 2004 voting numbers that reveal useful demographic data: (1) blacks were 8 percent of voters in 2000, and 11 percent in 2004, versus their 13 percent share of the population; (2) Hispanics were 8 percent of the 2004 electorate, though they make up 14 percent of the population; (3) first-tie voters were 9 percent of 2000's vote and 11 percent of 2004's; (4) undecideds were 10 percent of 2004's electorate, but are, according to Michael Barone, 36 percent in 2008.

Let's look at the 10 largest states (which I will define as those with 15 or more electoral votes).  To assess the impact potentially arising from African-American votes, plus each state's 2008 Electoral College total (map here) in parentheses: CA (55) - 6.2%; TX (34) - 11.6%; NY (31) - 15.8%; FL (27) - 15.7%; PA (21) - 10.7%; IL (21) - 15.1%; OH (20) - 12.2%; NC (15) - 22.2%; NJ  (15) - 15.0%; GA (15) - 29.4%.  These states total 254 (94 percent) of the 270 EC votes needed to win.  In any state where the black population is greater than their 13 percent share, save for Florida, Obama will have a huge edge: NY, IL, NC, NJ & GA.  A lopsided military vote in NC might save McCain, but among blacks who served in the military, racial pride will trump military record.  Big Mac has a chance in CA & TX, plus perhaps PA.  IL & OH seem out of reach.  Only in FL, 4th largest, with 2 EC votes, does Big Mac seem to have an edge, as the Cuban population will overwhelmingly vote for him.

Figure the 13 percent black share will be topped y their voter turnout, by at least 50 percent, possibly even 75 percent, conceivably twice their share.  Assume Mac gets 5 percent (a generous assumption, as he will likely get less, Hill having managed less than 10 percent in later primary contests).  At 150 percent, the 19.5% black share of the 2008 votes gives Obama an 18-point edge, a 175 percent jump gives Obama a 22-point edge and a doubling gives him at 25-point edge.  It is important to grasp that of the added black turnout, 100 percent is likely to be for racial reasons, and thus all will go to Obama; that is why I calculate that McCain's black vote ceiling is around one percent, no matter what.

Had blacks turned out at 15 percent of the 2004 total, instead of 11 percent, Kerry would have won the election by a few hundred thousand votes.  He won 59 million of 117 million, losing by 3 million.  His 88-11 margin among blacks over Bush means that each added million black votes would give Kerry a 770,000 vote gain.  Thus, 4 million more black votes would have erased Bush's 3 million vote margin.  A 150 percent black turnout would have meant another 7 million black votes in 2004 (you can do the arithmetic for 175 percent and doubled turnouts).

So, Big Mac has a tall order for November.