Letter From The Capitol

Index 3/21/08

2 posts: (1) Hillary's "Best (Wo)Man" Scenario--The Home Front; (2) Palestinian Polling: War, Not Peace--Us v. Them; "God Bless America": Irving Berlin's Grand Salute--Class & Crass.

Hillary's "Best (Wo)Man" Scenario

Suppose Obama stays within 10 or 15 points in Pennsylvania, and thus still appears viable.  Here is another potential scenario for the Democrats.

The 1964 movie version of Gore Vidal's best-selling novel, "The Best Man," made for a solid political thriller.  A liberal Democrat (modeled on Adlai Stevenson, played by Henry Fonda) and a conservative Democrat (modeled on Richard Nixon, played by Cliff Robertson--who also, ironically, played JFK in "PT 109," the film biopic of Kennedy) vie for the Democratic presidential nomination.  Each has a skeleton in his past: the liberal was treated for mental illness (which sank the 1972 V-P nomination of Democratic Senator Thomas Eagleton, as George McGovern's first running mate selection); the conservative has a "wide stance" men's room encounter and arrest.  The picture ends with the two deadlocked at the convention, neither able to garner a majority.  So the liberal throws his delegates to the third contender, an unknown.

Now, assume: (1) Hillary is sitting on a "smoking gun" tape of Barack & Michelle , caught vigorously applauding one of Reverend Wright's "hate white America" tirades; (2) Hillary winds up after all the primaries with more popular votes than Obama, but fewer delegates, with both margins close; (3) no one else has fatally incriminating tapes.

Hillary now approaches key super delegates, or even Obama's camp, and gives them a choice: Anoint her for the top spot on the ticket, with Obama as Veep, or tapes will leak, thus destroying (a) the Party's chances of victory in November and (b) Obama's political career.  Hillary agrees that if her ticket loses she will never again run for the Oval office (an easy concession, as she will never be as strong a candidate as she is now).  Obama, at 46, could run again in 2012, or bide his time, his career protected by the tapes being kept secure.

Far-fetched?  Perhaps.  Perhaps not.  Hillary is the third of her generation's three most ambitious politicians.  Al Gore created an election train wreck ISO the presidency--preferring to win even a diminished presidency than lose gracefully, a blow from which the country has yet to recover.  Presidential aspirant Eliot Spitzer prosecuted his way to glory, over the dead bodies of innocent as well as guilty.  Hillary--not her husband--is the third of this unholy trio.  Winning the presidency is to her, everything.  Barack may yet wind up paying dearly for his pastor not having learned the "Lesson of Watergate": Burn the tapes, stupid!

Palestinian Polling: War, Not Peace

Bob Tyrrell presents the results of a recent poll taken by the Palestinian Center for Policy & Survey Research, an independent polling firm on the West Bank.  Results: (1) 84 percent approval of the recent Hamas attack on Mercaz Harav yeshiva in Jerusalem; (2) 75 percent favor ending peace negotiations with Israel; (3) 64 percent approval of Gazan militants firing random rockets into Israeli towns.  Khalil Shikaki, the pollster whose firm took the survey, said that never before, in the 15 years--dating back to 1993, the Year of Oslo--that he has surveyed Palestinian attitudes, have a majority favored rocket attacks or ending peace negotiations.

Alas, it seems that among those who do not grasp the import of this are Israeli PM Ehud Olmert, President Bush, Condi Rice, and the State Department, as they pursue a "peace process" with people who resoundingly reject same.  Call it the latest episode of "Foggy Bottom Fantasy Island."

"God Bless America": Irving Berlin's Grand Salute

It takes time to appreciate fully the greatness of Irving Berlin's hymn to his adopted land.  His simple song, written with just 105 original notes (44 in the opening verse, 61 in the refrain that follows, the latter repeated once, for a total of 166 notes), expresses a mid-century pride in America that resonates deeply with those who prefer "God Bless America" to the Reverend Wright's "G-D America" verbal atrocity.  Berlin's song struck me, in my callow youth, as pedestrian.  In my adulthood, and my musical adulthood, I see it now for the masterpiece it is.

The song's verse and refrain are both written with elegant simplicity, making musical statements that maximize emotional value per note.  As a hymn, it lacks the pizazz of the great American songbook classics.  But it combines lyrics of genuine sentiment and power with a graceful melodic line.  The melody has a surprise key change in the first repeat of the verse that supplies an emotional spark.  In the refrain, voicing the simple chords with the 3 and 5 of the 1 - 3 - 5 chordal triad, adds harmonic charm to a song whose chords are basic, largely devoid of the jazzy dissonances and advanced chord progressions (in lay terms, chord sequences) that add spice to many songbook classics.

Economy of composition is a hallmark of the 32-bar popular song, with a 16-bar verse often added at the beginning.  (Berlin's song is longer: It has a 17-bar verse, and a 40-bar refrain, repeated once, for a total of 97 bars.)  Many verses are little more than quasi-operatic recitative, with little melodic charm.  Berlin's verse here avoids the recitative sound, carrying full melodic weight.  It opens with an allusion to the specter of war in Europe--penned in 1918, published with revisions in 1938 (Wikipedia's entry offers more history): "While storm clouds gather, far across the sea," continues by calling for gratitude at living in a "land so free," and ends with "Let us raise our voices, in a solemn prayer."

The refrain starts with "God bless America, land that I love," asks that Americans "stand beside her, and guide her," and in the last bars evokes gorgeous images of American geography--mountains, prairies, to the oceans.  Thus there is a tripartite lyrical development: declaration of profound affection, a call for support, and a celebration of America's geographic beauty.  The refrain is forceful yet warm, and provides strong thematic counterpoint to the gentle plea in the verse.

The melodic line of the verse covers but an octave; the refrain covers an octave plus one note, a ninth, in musical terms.  This range is well within the singing range of the vast majority of people.  The refrain has no sudden jumps like in the verse, but its structure lends itself to voicing (as noted above) that supplies harmonic color to the plain-vanilla chords that predominate.

So, Berlin gave us a song that is easily singable, gracefully melodic, lyrically moving, and simple.  Complexity can be musically compelling, but so can simplicity.  Short-form songs are short stories, in counter-pose to the mega-novels that are symphonies.  Alternatively, they are haiku compared to epic poems.  Making a complete statement in microcosm is a deceptively difficult art.  Songs must fit within the vocal range of singers--on the piano keyboard, usually less than one-quarter of the notes; Berlin fit his song within a span of 14 black & white notes).  Symphonic composers can write not only for all of the piano's 88 keys, but for orchestral ensembles that include instruments with notes that lie outside (lower or higher than) the piano's frequency range.

One illustration of complexity: Frederic Chopin's 4th movement of his famed "Funeral March Sonata (in B-flat minor) runs 76 bars, 21 shorter than Berlin's song; in duration it runs two minutes, about the same as Berlin's song.  But it crams 1,728 notes into its first 72 bars (4 triplets per bar, played parallel one octave apart), then adds two 24-note bars (two parallel triplets per bar), before a parallel B-flat octave in bar 75 and a two-hand, 8-note B-flat minor closing chord in bar 76.  Add it up, and there are 1,762 notes played in 76 bars.  Berlin's work, as noted earlier, amounted to 166 notes played in 97 bars.  Dense structure served Chopin's musical purpose, as sparse structure suited Berlin's.

So, Mr. Berlin has given us a gem, stuffed into a micro-form that he, and his fellow craftsmen (and women) of the Great American Songbook perfected.  They left the world cultural gifts of inestimable value.  And America, too, has given the world gifts of comparable value, bringing freedom to literally hundreds of millions.  It remains, per Abraham Lincoln, the world's "last, best hope" for those still not free.  May God bless America, and may God bless the memory of Mr. Irving Berlin.

Index 3/20/08

3 posts: (1) Obama's Pastor Fallout: Radioactive?--The Home Front; (2) Iraq + 5 years--Us v. Them; (3) Dana Perino: Impressive White House Pressie--The Home Front.

Obama's Pastor Fallout: Radioactive?

Barack Obama tried to square the circle in his Philadelphia address.  At best, he semi-squared what is, in truth, a non-squarable circle: distancing himself from his hate-merchant pastor, while remaining connected to a church whose own website carries an Afrocentric "liberation theology" that openly calls not only for a God that values blacks and reviles whites, but calls for killing a God that does not do so.  "Liberation" apparently means freeing parishioners from any constraints of law or morality, when it comes to dealing with white people.

Polls probably do not fully reflect an electorate that knows how hateful the theology of Obama's church truly is, else they would show Obama at near-zero voter support outside the black community.  Obama's candidacy would have completely imploded.  Imagine a GOP politician tied to a white evangelical congregation whose website called for killing blacks--and any God that recognized blacks as equals.  How long would it take for MSM to explode that candidacy?  Ann Coulter nails the one-sided race pseudo-dialogue:

Obama gave a nice speech, except for everything he said about race. He apparently believes we're not talking enough about race. This is like hearing Britney Spears say we're not talking enough about pop-tarts with substance-abuse problems.

By now, the country has spent more time talking about race than John Kerry has talked about Vietnam, John McCain has talked about being a POW, John Edwards has talked about his dead son, and Al Franken has talked about his USO tours.

But the "post-racial candidate" thinks we need to talk yet more about race. How much more? I had had my fill by around 1974. How long must we all marinate in the angry resentment of black people?

The "What about Bob Jones University and the Republicans?"  excuse is not passing muster, either.  As well it shouldn't.  BJU advocates "separate but equal" and bans inter-racial dating.  BJU, to my best knowledge, does not advocate killing blacks, let alone, killing any God that does not favor whites.  BJU lost its tax exemption for its views, but the Trinity United Church of Christ can display at its website the following message (posted on LFTC Wednesday, March 18, put here again, for reader convenience):

Black theology refuses to accept a God who is not identified totally with the goals of the black community. If God is not for us and against white people, then he is a murderer, and we had better kill him. The task of black theology is to kill Gods who do not belong to the black community. . . . Black theology will accept only the love of God which participates in the destruction of the white enemy. What we need is the divine love as expressed in Black Power, which is the power of black people to destroy their oppressors here and now by any means at their disposal. Unless God is participating in this holy activity, we must reject his love.

Apparently, a black church with this message still manages to qualify as a charitable institution eligible for tax-exempt status.  Inter-racial dating bans might qualify, too, if a black church or educational institution had such a policy.   Such a policy hardly equates to a policy that calls for believers to "accept only a the love of God which participates in the destruction of the white enemy" and states that "[The task of black theology is to kill Gods who do not belong to the black community."  The former is anti-social behavior; the latter is genocide.

We have seen such sentiments before.  Sounds like militant Islam, doesn't it?  And thus it is no coincidence that Pastor Wright is chummy with the likes of Louis Farrakhan and Libyan dictator Muammar Qaddaffi--the latter, at least, when he was sponsoring terror against America.  And it is equally no coincidence that Pastor Wright hates Israel and embraces the Palestinians.  What are Americans to think of a congregation that accepts such a pastor?  Cite his military service and good works in the community?  Would such an excuse resonate for a white supremacist who helped poor whites in Appalachia obtain medical and social services?  Hamas and Hezbollah both do community social work, but does that excuse their acts or terrorism?  The Mafia in Sicily does social work, but does that excuse their conduct of organized crime?

Well, America, it seems, has spoken.  Obama may not yet be radioactive, but his magic carpet ride is over, and the "celestial choir" Hillary complained had been singing for Obama has been replaced, by a choir singing Afrocentric racial hatred of whites and Jews.  Polls taken by Zogby - Reuters show serious damage to Obama.  His 14-point lead over Hillary was 3 points earlier this week (47 - 44); his 7-point lead over McCain in February (47 - 40) has reversed to a 6-point edge for McCain (46 - 40).  (McCain's 50 - 38 lead over Hillary in February has narrowed to 48 - 40.)

There is more bad news for Barack: RCP's 5-poll average now has Hill up 16.8 points over Barack in Pennsylvania, 52.0 - 35.2.  Her leads in the 5 polls range from 12 to 26 points.  It gets even worse for Obama: The polling dates in the average span March 5 - 16.  The most recent poll, taken March 15 & 16--and thus the only poll that significantly--perhaps not even fully--reflects the pastor's video firestorm--is the one showing the 26-point margin, 56 - 30.

Now, suppose Hill wins Pennsylvania by 25 points.  This very possible, for three reasons: (1) Hill has squared her position on withdrawal from Iraq with Obama, and the war is, in the event, an issue of diminishing salience; (2) Hill matches, indeed exceeds, Obama's strength on economic issues; (3) the stench of Obama's pastor mess is not the kind of  stink that erodes easily.  How credible will Obama look after a 25-point shellacking in a key industrial state?  Increasingly, Democrats are looking at the ultimate rock versus hard place dilemma: (a) deny Obama the top spot, thus alienating their most loyal core constituency (blacks); or (b) give him the top spot, and have a candidate whose inability to separate fully from his pastor makes him no longer a post-racial candidate, and thus unable to win enough white votes to beat Bag Mac come November.

The pastor videos are beginning to look like a spreading mushroom cloud.

Iraq + 5 Years

The Sunday New York Times posted nine single-page op-ed summaries re Iraq, spanning a broad spectrum of opinion.  Worth a quick tour.  And the Wall Street Journal has posted an appraisal by Mideast maven Fouad Ajami, whose poetic prose matches his keen insight.  President Bush gave his 5-year review and the White House added its fact sheet on progress.

And there is great news, reported by the New York Sun: Iraq's Presidential Council has approved the local provincial elections to take place by October 1, 2008.  Iraq's Parliament had approved the elections February 13, but the Council also had to approve.  The law defines relations between Iraq's 18 provinces and the national government.  Political parties still must agree on rules for conducting the elections.  Iraq will also elect a new Parliament in 2009.

A Wall Street Journal editorial adds more perspective, noting that Saddam told interrogators that he intended to resume his WMD programs, that oil production is now 2.4 million barrels per day, daily insurgent attacks are down by 2/3s and Iraqi security forces now total 425,000.  And Iraq is emerging as an ally of America, not an Iran-controlled satellite or al-Qaeda terror state.

More good news: Former Coalition Provisional Authority spokesman Dan Senor co-authored an op-ed that shows how thug-cleric Moqtada al-Sadr is now marginalized and living in Iran.  Sadr was initially foolishly empowered by the U.S. adopting the UN's proportional representation national party list, which gave Sadr's Shia militia 38 seats out of 275 in the Iraq Parliament, compared to the less than 5 Sadr would have won with local representation winner-take-all, is now marginalized.  Sadr told an interviewer on March 8: "I have failed to liberate Iraq, and transform its society into an Islamic society."  Sadr also said: "One hand cannot clap alone."  (Sadr, apparently, has never studied Zen Buddhism, where "the sound of one hand clapping" is a goal of meditation, in pursuit of satori, the idealized enlightenment state that is the equivalent of nirvana in Indian Buddhist theologies.)  The article offers details of Sadr's rise & fall, but cautions that victory is not yet assured.

Dana Perino: Impressive White House Pressie

White House Press Secretary Dana Perino has proven her bona-fides in terms of moxie and candor.  Fox News Sunday named her the Power Player of the Week last Sunday, and showed her gracefully putting down all-time leftie loudmouth Helen Thomas for taking advantage of the privileged front-row seat her press colleagues give her, by suggesting the the US is deliberately killing innocent people in Iraq.  Perino was also candid about her need to learn military stuff.  She said that men "by osmosis" know military stuff, whereas she had to learn "the difference between a carrier and a destroyer."  In learning that difference she put space between her and many members of Congress.

Way back in 1983, shortly after the 1982 election, I had occasion to ask Geraldine Ferraro a question on naval matters, asking her if she supported then-Senator Gary Hart's idea of smaller carriers instead of the behemoths we build.  She answered that she neither knew nor cared.  Fortunately for her, the session was not taped, and a little more than one year later she was put on the Mondale ticket as Veep.  Fortunately for America, she was not elected in 1984.

Oh yes, at the risk of sounding like an MCP (male chauvinist pig, in feminist-speak), Perino is also easily the prettiest WH press secretary the nation has ever had.

Index 3/19/08

3 posts: (1) Obama's Philadelphia Speech: Tertiary Strategic Distance--The Home Front; (2) Mainstream Media's Semi-Spike Fails--MSM Murders; (3) The Reverend, His Church, Michelle & November--The Home Front.

Obama's Philadelphia Speech: Tertiary Strategic Distance

Barack Obama's Philadelphia speech (here are video and text versions) was the very best that he could have given.  He distanced himself, to the maximum possible, from his former pastor.  There were shortcomings--how does a nut-cake statement like the government's inventing the HIV virus to mass-murder blacks not operate as a total disqaulifier for personal relations?  Would you want your kids baptized by, and instructed in any way by, someone who makes such a statement?  Some statements are context-independent, like that one, like Louis Farrakhan's obscene anti-Semitic and pro-Hitler remarks?  For such stuff there are no saving contexts.  But on the whole, Obama's speech was mostly powerful and uplifting.  The New York Post editors noted that Obama, in recognizing racial progress, put distance between himself and grievance-mongers like Jessie Jackson & Al Sharpton.

But Obama's speech was the third stage in his distancing himself and his campaign from his pastor.  First came when he announced his run for the presidency, and Wright was kept away, because Obama knew that some of his taped remarks would prove neuralgic to many white voters.  Second was last week, when Obama expressly disavowed sharing the views of his pastor.  Comes now Philadelphia, when Obama distanced himself as well from the more extreme elements of his pastor's theology.  This suggests strategic calculation--even so if one assumes, as I do, that Obama doesn't agree with much of what his pastor said.  I doubt Obama believes that the government invented the HIV virus to kill blacks, for example.  He is, however, liberal enough to believe that we brought 9/11 upon ourselves.

Obama's dilemma is that he cannot openly repudiate in full his hateful pastor, without alienating much of the black community, where 70 percent, if polls are accurate, either do not think the pastor's comments a big deal, or like him more for having said it.  We will see in Pennsylvania how his alibi plays.