House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, in a display of epic effrontery last Thursday, warned General David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker not to put a positive spin on the situation in Iraq, when this week they testify before Congress. Said Madame Speaker: We have to know the real ground truths of what is happening there, not put a shine on events because of a resolution [of the situation in Basra] that looks less violent when it has in fact been dictated by someone [Iraqi Shiite cleric Moqtada] al-Sadr who can grant or withhold that call for violence or not." "General Pelosi" was prominent among those who castigated the Bush administration for pressuring intelligence analysts to slant their findings re Iraq WMD, a charge refuted in major reports (Senate Intelligence Committee, July 2004; Silberman-Robb Commission, February 2005).
Frederick & Kimberley Kagan assess Basra, with a few extra days' perspective, and find that failure to set proper conditions led to a flawed effort--PM al-Maliki acted upon impulse. In doing so he did what the Congress oft pressed him to do: attack outlaw Shia militias and criminal gangs. Iraqi troops numbered 30,000 for the operation (more than 3 times the 9,000 in 3 brigades Congress wanted Iraq to deploy in Baghdad). Sadr's troops performed far less effectively than they did in 2004, when they plunged Baghdad & Karbala into chaos; this time their efforts fizzled. Far from straddling between America & Iran--the way our pal Musharraf straddled between us and the Islamists in Pakistan--Iraqi forces fought on our side, against Iranian support. Terror expert Daveed Gartenstein-Ross & Iraq blogger Bill Roggio add more on Basra: In 6 days of fighting, Sadr's Mahdi Army lost 571 killed & 880 wounded, 490 captured & 30 surrendered. the Iraqi opposition called a parliamentary session to oppose the mission, and only 54 of 275 lawmakers showed up. The government maintains it did not accede to any of the 9 conditions set by Sadr for the ceasefire.
John McCain said on TV Sunday that "overall the Iraqi military performed pretty well" but that the government made a mistake in starting a campaign in Basra while still fighting in Mosul. Big Mac added that Basra is now under government control, and that Sadr's request for a ceasefire shows he was losing; winers, Big Mac noted, rarely ask for ceasefires (Mac thought it a mistake for the Iraq government to stop).
Ex-Green Beret Jack Kelly offered his own appraisal of Basra, echoing Big Mac. Tellingly, Kelly also quoted George Friedman of Stratfor, to the effect that Iran's aim of using pro-Iran Shia to dominate Iraq has been thwarted, Stratfor argued a year or two ago that Iran was calling the shots in Iraq, and that any resolution would be on Iranian terms. The shift by Friedman, a solid commentator is significant, as in indicator of how the surge has turned the tables on Iran.
Frederick Kagan also tallies the Benchmark Scorecard for Iraq, per what Congress required per the surge: (1) Legislative - 4 accomplished, 2 underway, 1 stalled; (2) Security - all 7 accomplished; (3) Government Performance - 1 accomplished, 3 underway. Thus, of 18 benchmarks, 12 have been accomplished, 5 are underway and just one is stalled. Would anyone care to ascertain how Congress did, given 18 major benchmarks, in any calendar year since the founding of the republic?
College student Tara Tedrow raises a pointed query: If Obama wants a "strike force" to keep the peace in Iraq, how many troops would be needed? Tedrow compares Iraq to California, a land area of roughly the same size. California currently has, in state and local personnel alone, 116,128 full-time law enforcement personnel. Now, adjust for population size, as California's 36.5 million populace is 1/3 higher than Iraq's 27.5 million--put another way, Iraq has 3/4 the population of California). Iraq thus needs 87,493. Except, of course, Iraq has a few security problems CA does not. (Then again, Iraq need not deal with the mess generated by Hollywood types.)